My sabbatical research project concerns energy flows through the South African economy. One such energy flow is fuel (both petrol and diesel) for both transportation, machinery, and other uses. The South African company Sasol is one of the premier suppliers of fuels in the nation, having commercialized the Fischer-Tropsch process for converting coal to liquid (CTL) fuel and having pioneering gas to liquids (GTL) technology as well.
Forecasting liquid fuel demand into the future is important for Sasol, as it enables facilities and production planning. To that end, they have developed a so-called “car parc” model that predicts the number of vehicles in the South African fleet in any year, their fuel efficiency, and their usage (in kilometers). With that information, forecasts of fuel demand are made.
However, I need historical vehicle usage and efficiency back to 1971, disaggregated by vehicle type. So it was that I met with two Sasol engineers this afternoon to discuss their parc model and brainstorm ways to develop a backcasting model of fuel consumption and vehicle efficiency for the nation. I appreciate the time that Arthur and Gareth spent with me. They are doing some really interesting work in Muizenberg.
I snapped a photo of the exterior of the Sasol research facility after my meeting. No photos are allowed inside!
—Matt
